For the first time in five years, the big risk for the global economy is not a collapse of the financial system, according to a report by the Eurasia Group released Monday.
Eurasia, which advises businesses on political and economic concerns, released its annual list of potential risks to global economic stability in 2014 -- and impending financial doom is not among them.
"That's over," the Eurasia analysts wrote in the report. "In 2014, big-picture economics are stable if not yet comforting."
Europe has emerged from recession and Japan's economy is shaking off decades of stagnation. The recovery in the United States is expected to accelerate this year even as the Federal Reserve graduallyreduces its stimulus policies. China's new government is implementing reforms to make the world's second-largest economy more stable.
The relatively calm outlook comes after a period of heightened financial risks. Investors and economists have been on alert for another meltdown since 2008. But none of the dire predictions came to pass. The euro is still around. China has not crash landed. And the U.S. didn't fall off the fiscal cliff.
Despite all the partisan rancor in Washington, talk that political dysfunction would derail the economy was overblown, according to Eurasia.
"This year will be much less politically volatile, with further upside market implications," Eurasia analysts said.
So what should you be worried about? The main risks in 2014 are all geopolitical, according to Eurasia.
The report describes a shifting balance of power in which the U.S. is losing its influence abroad. Ian Bremmer, the political scientist that founded Eurasia Group, describes a clear lack of global leadership in his 2012 book "Every Nation for Itself: Winners and Losers in a G-Zero World."
The number one risk this year stems from U.S. foreign policy, specifically how Washington manages its relationship with key allies.
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